Nottingham Forest’s blazing start to the 2023/24 Premier League season has fans and pundits whispering comparisons to Leicester City’s historic 2015/16 title triumph. While it’s early days, Forest’s form, resilience, and unexpected rise to third place in the league after 10 games have drawn remarkable parallels to the Foxes’ improbable run to glory. Let’s take a closer look at Forest’s revival under Nuno Espírito Santo, their tactical evolution, and whether they have the ingredients to pull off their own fairytale. 

 

A Start to Remember: Forest’s Remarkable 10-Game Run 

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Nottingham Forest are enjoying their best Premier League start in 25 years. After securing survival by just four points last season, their current third-place position feels like a revelation. They’ve won five games, drawn four, and lost only once—a record identical to Leicester’s after 10 games in 2015. Forest also boast a better goal difference (+7) and have kept three more clean sheets than Claudio Ranieri’s side did at this stage. 

Their success has been built on defensive solidity and attacking efficiency. The goals of Chris Wood, combined with a transformed backline featuring Nikola Milenković and Murillo, have made Forest a well-balanced outfit. Notably, they’ve conceded only seven goals—the second-best defensive record in the league, behind Liverpool. For a team that leaked 68 goals last season, this is a stark transformation. 

 

Wonderful Wood: Forest’s Answer to Jamie Vardy 

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At the heart of Forest’s attacking resurgence is Chris Wood. The 32-year-old New Zealand striker has been nothing short of talismanic, scoring eight goals in 10 appearances this season. Since making his move from Newcastle United permanent in June 2023, Wood has flourished under Nuno’s management. He has scored 22 goals in 30 Premier League starts, 19 of which have come since Nuno’s arrival last December. 

Wood’s remarkable conversion rate (32.8%) and his ability to outperform his expected goals (14.04) by nearly five goals underscore his clinical nature. Only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has netted more non-penalty goals (18) in this period. His dominance in the air and knack for clutch moments mirror Jamie Vardy’s influence on Leicester’s title-winning campaign. While their playing styles differ, Wood’s contributions have been equally vital to Forest’s early-season success. 

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Funnily enough, Wood is no stranger to Vardy, having shared a dressing room with him at Leicester during the 2012/13 season. The Foxes, then in the Championship, boasted striking depth that also included a young Harry Kane on loan from Tottenham. While Vardy and Kane went on to achieve global stardom, Wood's journey has been more understated, making his current prominence with Forest all the more remarkable. His rich form is not only a testament to his persistence but also a reminder of the depth Leicester had in their ranks a decade ago. 

 

Defensive masterclass: Milenković’s Impact 

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Forest’s turnaround owes much to their improved defence. Last season, they were notoriously vulnerable from set-pieces, conceding 23 goals in such situations—more than any other Premier League team. This season, they have allowed just one goal from set-pieces, with an xG against figure of 1.23, the best in the league. 

Central to this transformation is Nikola Milenković. Signed for less than £12 million from Fiorentina, the Serbian defender has quickly established himself as a commanding presence alongside Murillo. Their partnership has tightened Forest’s backline, which also benefits from the safe hands of Matz Sels. The Belgian goalkeeper has kept the joint-most clean sheets in the league, tied with Manchester United’s André Onana and Liverpool’s Alisson Becker. Not a bad shout for a cheap FPL goalkeeper… 

 

Nuno Espírito Santo: From Doubts to Dominance 

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Nuno Espírito Santo’s appointment last December raised eyebrows. After an underwhelming stint at Tottenham and a spell in Saudi Arabia, few expected him to reignite his Premier League credentials at Forest. Yet, Nuno has proven his doubters wrong, instilling discipline and tactical clarity into the team. 

Nuno’s meticulous planning and defensive acumen have made Forest difficult to break down, while his trust in players like Chris Wood has unlocked their potential. Unlike his early success with Wolves, where he relied heavily on agent Jorge Mendes’ influence, Nuno’s Forest project is evolving more organically. Key signings like Milenkovic and midfielder Elliot Anderson have added quality without disrupting the squad’s core dynamics. 

While Nuno’s touchline antics have occasionally landed him in hot water—he recently served a touchline ban for contesting a red card—his influence on Forest’s resurgence cannot be understated. 

 

Squad Stability: Evolution, Not Revolution 

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Nottingham Forest’s transfer strategy has shifted significantly since their chaotic return to the Premier League in 2022. That summer, they signed a record 22 players, leading to inevitable struggles with cohesion. This season, however, Forest added just six senior players, prioritizing quality over quantity. 

Many of the players driving Forest’s current success were integral to last season’s survival campaign. Seven starters from their recent 3-0 win over West Ham also featured in the final day victory at Burnley last term. This continuity, combined with targeted reinforcements, has allowed Nuno to build a cohesive unit. 

Notably, Forest’s reliance on players from their 2022 spending spree has diminished. For example, in their 1-0 win over Crystal Palace last month, only Dean Henderson—who now plays for Palace—was involved from that cohort. 

 

Tougher challenges ahead 

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Forest’s dream start has drawn scepticism from some quarters, with critics pointing to the relatively easy nature of their opening fixtures. Five of their 10 opponents currently sit in the league’s bottom seven, and their past three wins have come against struggling side - Crystal Palace, Leicester, and West Ham. 

However, Forest have also shown they can compete with the best. Their stunning win at Anfield handed Liverpool their only league defeat so far, while they earned credible draws against Chelsea and Brighton. Forest’s ability to grind out results, especially on the road, marks a significant improvement from last season. 

That said, the upcoming fixtures will provide a true test of their mettle. Trips to Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United loom large, along with home games against Aston Villa and Tottenham. By Christmas, we will know whether Forest can sustain their form or if they will falter under tougher scrutiny. 

 

The Leicester Comparison: Fairytale or Fantasy? 

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The comparisons to Leicester’s 2015/16 season are tempting but require context. Leicester defied 5,000-1 odds to win the league with a combination of Vardy’s goals, Riyad Mahrez’s brilliance, and N’Golo Kanté’s tireless work in midfield. They also benefited from a season where traditional powerhouses faltered. 

While Forest’s start mirrors Leicester’s in some respects, their success is built differently. Their defence-first approach, spearheaded by Milenković and Sels, contrasts with Leicester’s high-octane attacking style. Additionally, the Premier League’s top sides are far more dominant today, making a title challenge exponentially harder. 

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Still, Forest’s evolution under Nuno, combined with the brilliance of Chris Wood and their newfound defensive solidity, gives them a platform to aim high. European qualification, rather than a title push, appears a more realistic ambition. 

 

So, can Forest keep the dream alive? 

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Nottingham Forest’s resurgence has injected excitement into the Premier League. From near-relegation to the top three, their journey embodies the unpredictability that makes football so captivating. While replicating Leicester’s 2016 heroics may be a stretch, Forest have already defied expectations. 

As tougher fixtures approach, their resilience will be tested. But with Chris Wood firing, Milenković marshalling the defence, and Nuno pulling the strings, Forest have proven they belong among the league’s elite - for now. Whether their fairytale continues or fades, they have already etched a remarkable chapter in their storied history.